Using Mathematical Models to Assess Responses to an Outbreak of an Emerged Viral Respiratory Disease

5.7 Targeting children for antiviral prophylaxis

Page last updated: April 2006

In this section, we consider the effect of administering AVs for prophylaxis to school children using the stochastic household model. We assume that all school children at risk of infection are given AVs as prophylaxis, and remain on AVs if infected. The graphs in Figure 5.10 show the epidemic curves without intervention (red) and under this intervention (blue) in the SEIRH model with a flat infectiousness function. We see that this control measure is not sufficient to prevent major epidemics even with low values of R0, although it does have a noticeable effect, that weakens as R0 increases. If all individuals are given prophylaxis, rather than just school children, this is sufficient to eliminate infection for all three values of R0.
The effect of providing AVs as prophylaxis to all exposed school children.

Figure 5.10 The effect of providing AVs as prophylaxis to all exposed school children. The graphs show the epidemic curve with no intervention (red dotted line), and with AVs provided to school children (blue solid line) in the SEIRH model with flat infectivity.
The effect of giving AVs to children for prophylaxis is also reflected by its effect on R as shown in Figure 4.18.

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