To perform calculations, and present illustrations of these, to inform us about the relative effectiveness of

i. isolating cases as early as possible after diagnosis,
ii. personal infection control and distancing measures such as avoiding close contacts with people, wearing a P2 mask and frequently washing hands,
iii. closing schools,
iv. reducing interstate travel,
v. quarantining affected households, and
vi. use of antiviral drugs for treatment and prophylaxis to limit transmission.

We will evaluate the relative effectiveness of the above interventions according to their effect on the reproduction number, their ability to achieve the highest probability of elimination, their ability to delay the peak of the epidemic and lower this peak, and their effect on the number infected over the initial months of the epidemic.

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Using Mathematical Models to Assess Responses to an Outbreak of an Emerged Viral Respiratory Disease(PDF 873 KB)