Transmission by health care workers

A substantial proportion of infections will be due to HCWs if they are not protected by PPE and AVs. The proportion infected by HCWs is reduced substantially by the use of PPE and prophylactic use of AVs for HCWs.

Number of courses of antiviral drugs needed

If AVs are only used dynamically to prophylax health care workers and not for interventions in the community, then our models suggest that the stockpile will last over the course of the first wave of an epidemic. However, this will not alter the course of the epidemic.

If AVs are also used to prevent community transmission through the use of prophylaxis of contacts of new infectious cases, the stockpile will run out before the peak of the epidemic if elimination is unsuccessful. However, the peak of the epidemic can be delayed through this strategy for several months, which may facilitate wide-spread distribution of a vaccine before the peak of the epidemic.


The number of cases requiring hospitalisation rises above 10,000 for a significant period of time for an epidemic with a high attack rate. The peak number of cases requiring hospitalisation can be reduced through treatment of infectious cases, and delayed through prophylaxis of case contacts.

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Using Mathematical Models to Assess Responses to an Outbreak of an Emerged Viral Respiratory Disease(PDF 873 KB)